flower-shilling

LBMA's silver ocean 2025

Smithys Bullion - FINE GOLD AND SILVER
FYI - I think there are signs that the LBMA is under stress with their silver stock:
pmbug said:
... Yesterday, JPM, for the first time in well over a year, made an adjustment to the silver stock held in the NYC vault.
...
So what does this mean? What can we infer from this? I don't know for sure. Maybe nothing. But given:

- the registered->eligible patterns in the COMEX vault movements
- the anomalous Asahi withdrawal today and dangerously thin remaining eligible stock
- the deeply negative EFP
- the deepening Indian futures backwardation
- SFE/SGE silver vaults draining while silver trades at a premium to LBMA spot

It seems to me that the LBMA has a huge problem with their physical silver stock at the moment. It looks like they are in technical default on deliveries to India and China. It looks like they do not have sufficient physical stock to supply SLV with the silver that it needs (and presumably this extends to the other ETFs that vault in London). It looks like the COMEX is nearing the end of the line on silver that can easily be sent to London. It looks like JPM is being forced to move SLV vault stock from NYC to London to alleviate the stress a bit.
...
Click to expand...


View: https://x.com/pmbug/status/1991883238344651082
 
pmbug said:
FYI - I think there are signs that the LBMA is under stress with their silver stock:


View: https://x.com/pmbug/status/1991883238344651082
Click to expand...

Mate, they are doing the " shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic " moves o_O :eek:

The " Silver Ship " is sinking. With 7 yrs of Structural Supply Deficit ( they say 5 but the 1'st 2 yrs were covered by outflows for Silver ETF's ) :unsure:

So with Structural Supply Deficit's into the future, as there in no large scale mine production even in the the permitting stage, let alone mine production, the SILVER Supply is only going to keep shrinking.

I brought a modest seat on a smaller life boat. I hope that it see me thru to a rescued future :cool:
 
pmbug said:

View: https://x.com/pmbug/status/2020145250824605959



View: https://x.com/pmbug/status/2020154448878698672
Click to expand...


Hmm. 440 Mozs may only be 1 year of deficits with growing demand. I'm keen to see the Silver Institutes 2026 survey this year. Although much like the push back you mentioned from some people commenting about the legitimacy of the vaulting data, it can't be taken as the Gospel.

I'd really like to understand what happens when when the COMEX and LBMA available free-float dries up. I also wonder how "untouchable" SLV and PSLV holdings would be in that event. There may be a high probability the requirements to back these ETFs with physical would be loosened to a fraction reserve basis, and the majority of their holdings to exists solely as a leasing claim.

Calculating total holdings (not free float), they only have 6 years of reserves if the current deficits continue at the same rate. But the numbers still don't quite add up when you calculate the deficits supplied by the silver institutes data vs LBMA and COMEX holdings, which leads me to believe there is an undisclosed stockpile out there somewhere (which we've discussed previously).

As always, I'm very grateful for your efforts here @pmbug . All of your supplied data is an important piece of the jigsaw puzzle when analysing the silver market as whole. Focusing on one area like mine supply vs demand only goes so far if available free-float and transparent silver holdings aren't considered.

I think the next 4 years we'll see a massive hike in premiums from government mints, followed by a halting of sales of some products altogether.
 
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